Strong Q2 Performance and Outlook: Vistra achieved $1.349 billion in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025, with Generation contributing $593 million and Retail $756 million. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion, and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion, indicating confidence in meeting these targets despite challenges.
Growth Opportunities through Acquisition: Vistra announced plans to acquire 7 natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, with a combined capacity of approximately 2,600 megawatts, enhancing its geographic diversification and generation capabilities. The acquisition is expected to close later this year or early next year and is projected to exceed mid-teens levered return targets.
Improved Free Cash Flow Conversion: The company expects an increase in free cash flow conversion rates to over 60% starting in 2026, driven by fiscal policies and an improved operational environment. With a projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint of at least $6.8 billion, this translates into significant unallocated capital for investment or shareholder returns.